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EUR/USD rallied above 1% in two days as Trump threatened 10% tariffs on European countries opposing his Greenland plans, while German and euro-area ZEW sentiment beat expectations. European leaders met in Brussels to discuss retaliation.
Escalating transatlantic trade threats weaken the dollar and raise the risk of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. farm goods, which could hit U.S. export demand for feed grains and soybean products. Currency moves also change import costs for European feed buyers.
fxstreet.comGuillermo AlcalaJan 20, 2026After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 33 past bearish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.2%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
US-EU tariff tensions over Greenland pressured the dollar while a strong ZEW print supported the euro, matching the move's timing and direction.
