
Oil prices fell after Iran signaled de-escalation following a limited missile attack. Prices had jumped about 4% earlier as traders watched the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran's legislators had demanded closure.
A reduced threat to Gulf crude flows lowers the risk premium in energy markets, easing diesel and fertilizer cost pressure for feed producers.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Prices reversed from an earlier 4% gain as Iran signaled de-escalation with a limited missile attack, which lowered the supply-disruption premium.
Oil tumbled as Iran signaled de-escalation with a limited missile attack, reversing earlier gains.
Prices tumbled as Iran signaled de-escalation with a limited missile attack, removing the Hormuz disruption fear.