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Apr 24, 2017GEOPOLITICSFrance

Macron emerges on top as France urged to reject Le Pen

French stock markets rose on Monday morning and the euro reached its highest level since November against the dollar. Investors bet against a Le Pen victory, with Macron positioned ahead of the second round.

WHY IT MATTERS

Reduced expectations of a Le Pen win support the euro and European assets. The effect on feed commodity prices is indirect.

AFFECTSEuro (USD per EUR)▲

SOURCE
cnn.comAngela Dewan, Bryony JonesApr 24, 2017

Price reaction & history

Euro (USD per EUR)▲bullishSO FAR1d +1.4%5d +1.9%20d +4.6%

After 18 past bullish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (83% higher; middle half +0.9% to +2.0%), and +2.0% over 20.

Apr 24, 2017France's Macron and Le Pen head for runoff in second round of presidential election+1.9%
Apr 25, 2017Continued Macron relief rally helps boost EUR USD to extended 5 month high+0.6%
Mar 9, 2022Euro surges as oil prices ease and investors embrace risk+0.9%
Mar 10, 2022Sterling Vulnerable, Pound To Dollar Rate Lifeline As Global Equities Surge-0.7%
Apr 24, 2017French Markets Surge as Euro Withstands Attack From the Right - The New York Times+1.9%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Linked price moves

Euro (USD per EUR)+1.4%1 period to Apr 24, 20173.5σ
Investors bet against a Le Pen victory and the euro reached its highest level since November, which supports the euro move.

Euro (USD per EUR) EURUSD · GP ▸

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