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China is trying to cut soybean meal use in hog feed after tariffs on U.S. purchases, with a measure due Nov. 1 calling for less protein per unit of feed sold to hog farmers.
Pigs will take longer to fatten, cutting pork supply and lifting prices.
Lower protein feed reduces soymeal demand, which is bearish for soybeans and soymeal, while higher pork prices could eventually restore feed buying.
bloomberg.comAlfred CangNov 1, 2018After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.8% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
