U.S. farmers still dependent on trade aid after China deal

After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Jan 7, 2020China won't hike grain import quotas for U.S. trade deal: Caixin+0.9%
• Jun 11, 2025China Nudges Pig Farmers to Restrain Supply After Prices Slump-0.5%
• Jul 29, 2018U.S. says farmers could get cash aid by October but will not be made whole+1.3%
• Apr 18, 2025Multibillion US farm, protein trade face choppy waters over ship fees | S&P Global-0.1%
• Jan 23, 2024China to Encourage Hog Farmers to Reduce Capacity After Price Slump - Pork Business-1.0%

After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Jul 29, 2018U.S. says farmers could get cash aid by October but will not be made whole+1.8%
• Nov 20, 2019A trade deal with China could end up hurting the U.S. soybean market -Braun-3.0%
• Apr 18, 2025Multibillion US farm, protein trade face choppy waters over ship fees | S&P Global+1.3%
• Jun 18, 2025China's big feed shift to curb soybean imports, strain small farmers-4.5%
• Jan 18, 2023UPDATE 2-China official urges farmers to reduce sow herds-3.3%