
China's agriculture ministry said it will guide hog farmers to reduce production capacity after an oversupply and 2023 losses of 76 yuan per hog. Sow herd fell 2.5 million head to 41.42 million by end-December, though destocking will continue for one to two months.
Shrinking Chinese hog numbers reduce feed demand for soymeal and corn, supporting a recovery in the second quarter but weighing on near-term feed purchases.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.3%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.