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The Brazilian real weakened about 6.2% to 3.31 per dollar after a newspaper reported that President Temer encouraged payments to a jailed former congressman. Mr. Temer has denied wrongdoing, and the report raised doubts about the government's ability to pass key economic reforms.
Uncertainty over reforms and the currency's sharp fall make Brazilian export commodities cheaper for foreign buyers, which can pressure global soybean and meal prices.
foxbusiness.comJeffrey T. Lewis, Luciana MagalhaesMay 18, 2017After 12 past bullish policy events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +1.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.0%), and +2.3% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Report that Temer encouraged hush-money payments triggered a ~6% real plunge to 3.31 per dollar and raised doubts over reform passage, directly driving the 5-day BRL move ending May 18.
Reports that Temer encouraged hush-money payments triggered the real's plunge on 2017-05-18, a sentiment and political-risk shock that cast doubt on reform passage and drove capital out of BRL.
