
The yuan slipped against the dollar as investors weighed Trump's tariff plans, including a discussed 10% duty on Chinese imports tied to fentanyl flows. Beijing announced state insurer equity purchases to support stocks.
Potential new US tariffs on Chinese goods raise the risk of retaliation that could cut Chinese purchases of US soybeans, corn and meal, a bearish factor for US feed grain prices.
After 31 past bullish policy events, USDCNY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.