
Argentine farmers are expected to plant a record 7.84 million hectares of corn this season, while soybean area falls to 16.40 million hectares, the lowest since 2006. The Rosario exchange forecasts a 55 million tonne corn harvest and a 49 million tonne soy crop for 2021/22.
The shift is attributed to Argentina's soy export tax and the lack of a seed law for royalties on genetically modified soybeans.
A smaller soy crop reduces Argentina's supply of soymeal, the world's leading export source, which supports soymeal prices for feed buyers. A larger corn crop adds exportable supply and weighs on corn prices.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.