
Malaysian palm oil futures for August delivery fell 5.7% to 3,454 ringgit a tonne in early trade, hitting their lowest in more than four months. CBOT soybean and soyoil prices each fell more than 2% on reports that the US may reduce biodiesel production.
Palm has now declined for six straight sessions.
A possible cut in US biodiesel production would reduce demand for soyoil, a major competitor to palm in biofuel use. This weakens the price outlook for palm and soyoil.
After 400 past bearish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Early June 14 trade saw palm down 5.7% as CBOT soyoil fell on reports the US may cut biodiesel production, reducing vegetable oil demand and feeding sentiment.
Soyoil fell over 2% on reports the US may reduce biodiesel production, with palm falling in sympathy and reinforcing the downward pressure.
On June 14 palm extended a six-session losing streak on cheaper US soyoil and reports the US may cut biodiesel, confirming the biofuel-policy-driven selloff (just after the window).