
Malaysian palm oil futures fell over 1% on Friday, weighed by weaker Dalian and Chicago soyoil, though the November contract gained 1.5% for the week. Indonesia set its September crude palm oil export reference price 13% higher, lifting the implied export tax from $93 to $166 per tonne, and the EPA reportedly recommended retroactively lowering 2020 biofuel blending mandates.
A higher Indonesian export tax tightens export flows and supports palm prices, while a possible US biofuel mandate cut would reduce soyoil demand and weigh on vegetable oil values, including soybean oil and palm oil.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.