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IHS Markit analysts say new low-carbon fuel standards in California, Washington, British Columbia and proposed Canadian rules are driving strong demand for soybean oil as renewable diesel feedstock. They warn soybean oil could soon be priced out of the export market.
Policy-driven feedstock demand for soybean oil reduces exportable supply, lifting soybean oil prices and making soybean oil less available for food and export buyers, which supports the soybean complex.
hpj.comDavid MurrayJul 25, 2021After 841 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
