AgWeb explains that renewable diesel, made from fats and vegetable oils, is growing under state low-carbon fuel standards in California and Oregon. An AgResource analyst says US soybean oil supply must nearly double by 2024, requiring about 60% more crushing.
Expected growth in renewable diesel would drive large increases in soybean oil demand, supporting oil prices and crush margins relative to meal.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.