Soybean oil has become a sought-after renewable diesel feedstock as renewable diesel production capacity nearly doubled between May 2021 and May 2022. Soybean oil supply did not keep pace, pushing prices to historically high levels and boosting crush margins.
Nearly a dozen new or expanded soybean processing plants are underway in the Midwest.
Strong renewable diesel demand for soybean oil keeps oil prices elevated and encourages crush expansion, which increases demand for soybeans and leaves more meal supply available.
After 841 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.