
The Brazilian real weakened in mid-week trading on July 7, 2021 as investors weighed economic data and government plans to raise dividend taxes. Retail sales rose 1.4% in May, services PMI rose to 53.9 in June, and auto production fell 13.4% in June.
A proposed dividend tax increase is a policy risk that can weaken the real and weigh on investor sentiment, while mixed activity data points to a slower recovery in domestic meat and feed demand.
After 12 past bullish policy events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +1.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.0%), and +2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.