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China's hog capacity reduction is set to accelerate in September, according to Mysteel. The national sow herd fell to 37.80 million head at the end of Q2 2026, close to the Ministry of Agriculture's revised 37.50 million target for end-September.
Sow inventories fell 2.9% month on month in August, the steepest drop of the year, as producers culled low-yield sows under policy pressure.
Falling sow numbers point to lower pork supply later in the cycle, which supports hog prices. Reduced herd size also cuts future feed grain and meal demand from China.
mysteel.netSep 10, 2026After 37 past bullish policy events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.8% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
