Pacific Securities: The driving force for capacity reduction in the pig farming industry is strengthening, and the pace of reduction may accelerate.

After 37 past bullish policy events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.8% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Sep 10, 2026China's hog capacity reduction poised to accelerate in Sep | Mysteel-4.1%
• Jun 18, 2025Reaping of the sow: China to reduce pig count by 1 million amid low prices, deflation risk | South China Morning Post+2.3%
• Nov 5, 2017No joke: China's war on pollution roils world's top pig farming sector-2.8%
• Jun 7, 2024China's Pig Prices Rebound in 2024 Due to Market Recovery and Government Intervention-0.3%
• Aug 31, 2022Strict new controls on pork and pork products to protect Britain’s pig sector against African swine fever - GOV.UK-3.8%

After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.

• Sep 10, 2026China's hog capacity reduction poised to accelerate in Sep | Mysteel+4.1%
• Mar 5, 2024EUDR: Is the food industry ready to prove its supply chains are deforestation-free?+0.6%
• Jan 10, 2023China's soy reduction campaign could be an opportunity for alt-protein producers | The Fish Site+2.5%
• Apr 14, 2023Food security drives China to cut soymeal use in animal feed | Reuters-1.7%
• Jun 18, 2025Reaping of the sow: China to reduce pig count by 1 million amid low prices, deflation risk | South China Morning Post-2.9%