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China's agriculture ministry urged hog farmers to cut sow herds after live hog prices fell for 11 straight weeks to 16.3 yuan per kg, below the breeding cost. The sow herd is nearly 44 million, above the reasonable range, and COVID-related demand weakness has muted consumption.
Expected herd reductions would lower future hog output and soymeal demand, which is bearish for Chinese feed demand and lean hog prices.
agriculture.comJan 18, 2023After 34 past bearish policy events, HOGS moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.3%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
