
China's National Development and Reform Commission will buy pork under an emergency program after the pig-to-feed ratio fell below 5:1, triggering the highest-level warning in its three-tier monitoring system. Live hog prices rebounded to 16.36 yuan/kg from 12.65 yuan on June 22, and Dalian hog futures rose sharply.
State pork buying and a price floor could slow the hog herd liquidation and support feed demand, which is supportive for corn and meal demand from China. The price rebound signals a possible firming of Chinese hog-related feed demand.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.8% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.