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China pledged to ensure pork supply after African swine fever wiped out about a third of its hog herd, setting a 95% pork self-sufficiency target. The State Council issued guidelines with increased subsidies to boost domestic production, and pork prices rose 46.7% in August.
A self-sufficiency target limits import growth for pork and reduces the expected rebound in imported feed demand, though domestic herd rebuilding will eventually lift feed use. Import demand for soybeans and meal remains subdued in the near term.
caixinglobal.comDu Caicai, Denise JiaSep 12, 2019After 37 past bullish policy events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.8% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
