China Reins in Fertilizer Exports as War Pushes Up Global Prices

After 129 past bullish policy events, UREA moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.

• Nov 4, 2025China’s export controls drive up global fertilizer prices - DatamarNews-2.3%
• Oct 20, 2021China’s curbs on fertilizer exports to worsen global price shock-2.0%
• Oct 13, 2025Fertilizer prices rise amid China export limits-0.5%
• Oct 5, 2021China’s fertilizer exports ban raises worries from global markets - Fastmarkets+6.2%
• Oct 25, 2025Fertiliser Prices Set to Surge as China Suspends Exports - PLY INSIGHT+1.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Nov 17, 2023China fertilizer group calls for export cuts to stabilize prices-1.2%
• Mar 1, 2022House Ag Committee Begins Farm Bill Work With Eye on Fertilizer Prices, China Trade War Effects+4.7%
• Nov 11, 2024China’s record low urea exports support nitrogen fertilizers outlook: Fertiglobe-1.2%
• Jan 29, 2021Export rules by some countries force rise in global crop prices | AGDAILY+2.4%
• Mar 19, 2026China restricts fertiliser exports, further crimping war-tightened supply | Reuters+1.1%