
Bloomberg reports that Chinese authorities are holding some fertilizer cargoes for extra checks or new export certificates, with supplies either sold domestically or delayed. The move follows an October 15 customs rule requiring inspection of 29 fertilizer product categories, including urea.
Global fertilizer costs have reached record levels amid energy crises in Europe and China.
Delayed Chinese exports reduce global availability of urea and related fertilizers at a time of record prices, which keeps upward pressure on fertilizer costs and food inflation. Buyers outside China face tighter supply through the 2022 season.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.