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China's phosphate fertilizer exports have fallen from about 5.3 million tonnes in 2025 to almost nothing in 2026, according to Argus Media data. Chinese producers are focused on domestic demand because of tight sulfur supplies, and the curb extends to sulfuric acid shipments.
Argus forecasts only about 2 million tonnes of exports in 2027, with a fuller recovery dependent on sulfur supply.
China's near-total halt removes a major source of DAP and MAP supply, tightening the global phosphate market and raising import costs for feed-grain-producing countries. Prices for phosphate inputs are likely to stay firm into 2027.
global-agriculture.comGlobaladminOct 19, 2026After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
