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China reportedly moved to effectively block phosphate fertilizer exports through June 2022, building on export suspensions since late July 2021. China's August fertilizer exports fell 26.3% month on month, and urea futures in Zhengzhou hit record highs.
China is a major phosphate and urea supplier, so a sustained export ban tightens global supply and pushes international fertilizer prices higher. Higher fertilizer costs would weigh on farm margins and future planting economics.
fastmarkets.comEduardo Tinti, Cai ChenOct 5, 2021After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reported Chinese export blocks and record Zhengzhou urea futures cut global supply and drove sentiment higher.
