
China has reportedly signalled it may suspend phosphate fertiliser exports until August 2026 to contain domestic prices. China supplies about 28% of Brazil's phosphate imports, covering SSP, TSP and NP products.
China also signed a 2026 potash supply contract with a Russian company.
Losing Chinese phosphate supply would force Brazil to buy from Russia and Morocco at higher prices, tightening global phosphate availability and pushing prices up.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.