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World Bank analysis says fertilizer prices eased in October-November 2025 after a surge in 2024Q3, with DAP falling 6 percent and TSP 3 percent in November while urea rose 4 percent. Prices remain about 17 percent above a year earlier, and the index is projected to rise more than 20 percent in 2025 before moderating.
Trade restrictions, notably China's export constraints, remain key risks.
Elevated fertilizer costs squeeze farm margins for fertilizer-intensive crops such as corn and wheat, which can reduce planted area and tighten feed grain supplies. Continued export constraints from China support upward pressure on phosphate and nitrogen prices.
blogs.worldbank.orgJohn Baffes, Kaltrina TemajDec 4, 2025After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
World Bank noted DAP fell 6% in November, confirming the softening trend, though it was published after the window ended so it mostly reflects rather than drove the move.
