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Ravensdown reports that EU tariffs on Russian fertiliser have redirected product to Brazil, China and India. The EU carbon border mechanism triggered a rush on high-carbon products before January 1, and North African urea exports to Europe pushed prices up about 15% in a week.
US tariffs on most fertiliser were lifted in November and India's urea buying has swung prices between $400 and $500 per tonne.
Trade diversions and policy-driven buying spikes are making urea and DAP prices volatile, raising input costs for feed grain producers. Uncertainty in fertilizer pricing feeds through to corn and soybean production costs.
ruralnewsgroup.co.nzDec 27, 2025After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
