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Russian wheat trade has nearly stopped because an unofficial $275/t FOB price floor has left the market broken, with the lowest competitive offer at that level since late March. Traders say the government may withhold phytosanitary certificates from sellers below the floor, and some sellers are shipping cargoes themselves to hide low prices in freight.
Reduced Russian export volume tightens supply to importers and supports global wheat prices, though it also reflects state intervention that adds uncertainty to Black Sea pricing.
spglobal.comApr 21, 2023After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
