Russia is proposing an export quota on wheat for the second half of the 2020/21 marketing year, with the volume not yet announced. Russia previously proposed a 20 million tonne quota in January and limited grain exports to 7 million tonnes from April to June.
A Russian export quota could tighten global wheat supply and lift export prices, as Russia is a top supplier and UK and European prices track import parity.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.