Wheat prices rose from $415 to $450 per tonne in January after Russia, the largest wheat exporter, announced export taxes and grain export quotas. Analysts say the taxes, starting in February, aim to cut domestic prices and offset pandemic-related recession risk.
The measures are expected to disrupt international supply.
Russian export taxes and quotas restrict the world's largest wheat supply source, lifting international prices. Buyers may need to shift to other origins, which keeps global wheat prices firm.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.