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Russia's move to cap wheat exports and rising domestic food security calls are expected to support Black Sea wheat prices in 2022. USDA sees Russian 2021-22 wheat production at 75.5 million mt and exports at 36 million mt, both down year on year.
Ukrainian wheat production is estimated at 33 million mt with exports of 24.2 million mt.
A Russian export cap removes a major supplier from world markets and tightens high-protein wheat supply, which is bullish for Black Sea and global wheat prices and raises feed grain costs.
ukragroconsult.comDec 30, 2021After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
