S&P Global Platts reports Romania banned wheat exports to non-EU countries from April 10 until at least mid-May to protect its domestic market during the coronavirus emergency. The ban has triggered force majeure claims and concern over shipments to Asia and the Middle East, and Black Sea 12.5% protein wheat rose $5.25 to $230.50/mt FOB.
A export ban by a Black Sea supplier removes tonnage from world wheat trade, supporting wheat prices and feed-wheat substitution costs.
After 182 past bullish policy events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 318 past bullish policy events, CORN moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.