
India banned wheat exports on May 14 after a heat wave cut output and domestic prices hit record highs. Exports backed by existing letters of credit and government-to-government food security requests remained allowed.
India is the world's second-largest wheat producer, so the ban removes a major exporter from the market and lifts global wheat prices.
After 182 past bullish policy events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.