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Black Sea wheat prices hit a six-year high of $258.50/mt in October and again in late December. Russian export quotas and a duty take effect from February 15, 2021, and weather risks to the Russian winter crop remain.
The Russian export duty and possible winter crop losses are expected to support Black Sea wheat prices through the first half of 2021.
After 182 past bullish policy events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.