
Retail prices of rice, wheat, arhar, potato and onion in major Indian cities have stayed largely stable since demonetisation. Wheat prices have edged up slightly as domestic stocks deplete, and the government cut wheat import duty from 25% to 10%.
Depleting Indian wheat stocks and the cut in import duty point to higher import demand, which supports international wheat prices. Stable rice prices indicate no immediate export pressure.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 100 past neutral policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.6% to +2.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.