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India's Food Corporation held over 21 million tonnes of rice on July 1 against a buffer requirement of 13.5 million tonnes. Weak Open Market Sale Scheme demand and WTO constraints make exporting the surplus unlikely before the new procurement season.
Large state rice stocks that cannot be exported keep Indian export supply constrained in the near term, limiting upward pressure on world rice prices from India.
After 100 past neutral policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.6% to +2.3%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.