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S&P Global expects India to keep export curbs on rice until the October harvest and on wheat until March 2025, citing persistent food inflation. Lower import duties on vegetable oils have been extended until 2025.
Expected extended Indian curbs on rice and wheat keep major exporters' supply restricted, supporting global grain prices, while lower vegetable oil import duties could raise Indian demand for palm and soy oil.
spglobal.comSampad Nandy, Aditya Kondalamahanty, Samyak PandeyMay 7, 2024After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
