India banned wheat exports, trapping about 1.8 million tonnes at ports as a heat wave cut output and domestic prices hit records. Exporters holding letters of credit for only a fraction of the cargoes face losses from reselling into a weaker domestic market.
A sudden export ban removes a major supplier from world wheat trade, which tends to firm global wheat prices while trapped cargoes weigh on the domestic market.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.