
India banned exports of 100% broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on most other rice grades, effective September 9. Parboiled and basmati rice were excluded from the duty.
Below-average monsoon rain in key producing states prompted the move to boost domestic supply.
India supplies over 40% of global rice shipments, so the restriction tightens world supply and pushes buyers toward Thai and Vietnamese rice. Broken rice is also used as feed, so this is likely to lift global rice prices.
After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.