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An IFPRI analysis says India's July 2023 rice export restrictions have kept global prices elevated, with the Thai white rice benchmark up more than 20% since August 2023. Indian production in 2023/24 beat expectations, and 2024/25 forecasts show higher output and stocks.
India nonetheless keeps its export restrictions in place even after the general elections.
Continued Indian restrictions keep world rice supply constrained, which supports prices for buyers of rice and rice byproducts. Any easing would be a bearish trigger.
ifpri.orgJoseph Glauber, Abdullah MamunJul 29, 2024After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
