
India sharply increased fertiliser imports in September 2025, bringing in 1.94 million tonnes of urea and 881,000 tonnes of DAP, roughly six and three times year-earlier volumes. Companies are distributing DAP across wheat regions while urea cargoes are mostly stored at ports.
The buying comes as China suspended urea and specialty fertiliser exports from October 15.
Strong Indian import demand ahead of rabi, combined with China's export halt, supports urea and DAP prices in the global market.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.