US Weighs Farmer Bailout as China Threatens Retaliation

After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Dec 4, 2019Trump’s $28 Billion Trade War Bailout Is Overpaying Farmers - Bloomberg+3.5%
• Jul 24, 2018US to give farmers $12bn trade war bailout+3.2%
• Aug 28, 2018Trump's Farmer Bailout: Half Now, the Rest Later – Maybe-0.3%
• Aug 27, 2018USDA Announces Details of Assistance for Farmers Impacted by Unjustified Retaliation | USDA-1.1%
• Jan 23, 2025Argentina Slashes Export Taxes to Rescue Drought-Hit Farmers - Bloomberg+0.4%

After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Dec 4, 2019Trump’s $28 Billion Trade War Bailout Is Overpaying Farmers - Bloomberg-3.9%
• Aug 28, 2018Trump's Farmer Bailout: Half Now, the Rest Later – Maybe+0.8%
• Aug 27, 2018USDA Announces Details of Assistance for Farmers Impacted by Unjustified Retaliation | USDA+0.5%
• Jan 23, 2025Argentina Slashes Export Taxes to Rescue Drought-Hit Farmers - Bloomberg+1.4%
• May 23, 2019USDA Announces Support for Farmers Impacted by Unjustified Retaliation and Trade Disruption+3.7%