USDA announced details of up to $12 billion in assistance for farmers hurt by foreign retaliatory tariffs. Direct payments through the Market Facilitation Program start September 4, 2018 for corn, cotton, dairy, hog, sorghum, soybean and wheat producers, alongside up to $1.2 billion in commodity purchases.
Direct payments can cushion farm income and keep acreage and output supported despite lost export sales, but they do not restore export demand, so the net effect on cash prices for soybeans and corn is limited while trade uncertainty persists.
After 137 past neutral policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.