
The USDA's Market Facilitation Program will distribute about $9.6 billion in cash payments to producers of soybeans, sorghum, corn, wheat, cotton, dairy, hogs and other commodities. Payments are calculated on 50% of 2018 production per round, with rates set per bushel, pound or hundredweight.
Per-unit payments give producers a cash cushion but do not change the amount of grain or meal available to feed buyers. Price pressure from weak export demand, especially from China, remains the main driver.
After 554 past neutral policy events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 137 past neutral policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.