
A CoBank white paper released Sept. 13 explains that USDA set trade mitigation payment rates mainly on the gross value of prior trade losses rather than on price declines.
Corn receives about 1 cent per bushel while soybeans get $1.65 per bushel.
The payment method shapes how much support farmers get and whether they keep planting or marketing grain, but it does not directly change grain supply or demand.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.