USDA said on July 24, 2018 it will authorize up to $12 billion in programs for farmers harmed by unjustified retaliatory tariffs, matching an estimated $11 billion impact. Programs include the Market Facilitation Program, a food purchase and distribution program, and trade promotion.
The payments are designed to offset disrupted export markets for soybeans, corn, sorghum, wheat, and other crops, which may limit acreage cuts but leaves export demand weak.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.