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Government payments to farmers have surged to historic levels under President Trump, with direct farm aid climbing from $11.5 billion in 2017 to more than $32 billion this year. The Agriculture Department is distributing the cash to offset losses from tariff disputes and the coronavirus pandemic.
Critics warn the payments are growing too fast with little congressional oversight.
Large ad hoc aid cushions farm income and can keep acreage and production high despite weak prices, which is bearish for feed grain prices over time. Policy risk of future aid cuts is a longer-term consideration for feed buyers.
politico.comRyan McCrimmonJul 14, 2020After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
