
U.S. farm groups say they are generally pleased with NAFTA's trade growth for corn and livestock but fear President Trump's combative trade rhetoric could spill into renegotiation. Some specialty crop producers complain of unfair Mexican competition, and the first round of talks with Canada and Mexico is set for August 16 in Washington.
Uncertainty over possible retaliation against U.S. ag exports to Mexico and Canada could weigh on corn, pork and dairy export expectations until negotiations clarify the outlook.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.3%), and -1.8% over 20.
After 24 past bearish policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.8% to +0.5%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.