
Federal Milk Marketing Order changes took effect June 1, including higher Class I differentials, a return to the higher-of Class I mover, and increased make allowances. Farm Bureau estimates the make allowance changes would cut farmer milk checks by about 85 to 90 cents per hundredweight across classes.
The composition factor increases were delayed until December.
Reduced farmer milk checks from higher make allowances could slow dairy herd growth, a modest factor for dairy-related feed demand.
After 24 past bearish policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.8% to +0.5%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.