
University of Minnesota economist Marin Bozic said government coronavirus food box purchases lifted Class III prices and widened the Class III and Class IV cheese spread to a record. Cheese makers then depooled fluid milk, deepening three months of negative PPDs.
Negative PPDs cut farm milk checks and raise pressure for a federal review of the milk marketing system, which could change future pricing.
After 24 past bearish policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.8% to +0.5%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Government food box purchases lifted Class III prices and widened the cheese spread, with depooling reducing milk supply into Class III; both support the sharp rise.
Government food box purchases lifted Class III prices and widened the Class III-IV spread, showing policy demand support behind the rally.